Did the bottom just fall out of the North Carolina labor market?
Weekly data on unemployment insurance (UI) claims reported by North Carolina to the Employment and Training Administration (ETA) of the U.S. Department of Labor indicate that the number of continuing UI claims in its regular state program skyrocketed 52 percent from 84,699 for the week ending June 29 to 128,739 for the week ending July 6. The increase of 44,040 continuing claims is the largest in North Carolina in more than a decade.
The week covered by the data is the same week that ill-conceived changes in state law led to the elimination of federally-funded extended UI benefits for the state's long-term unemployed. However, claims for those extended benefits are not included in the regular state figures.
Continuing UI claims are seasonal and tend to grow in the weeks right around holidays when unemployed people are less likely to accept work. This is especially true of the Christmas and New Year holidays, which have the highest seasonal spikes, but also true of the July 4 holiday, which has a modest spike. For instance, this year continuing claims increased 10.5 percent in the rest of the country over the same week.
However, changes like North Carolina just reported are exceedingly rare. Data from the ETA go back to 1987. Over that 26-year period, there were only five other weeks in which the number of continuing claims increased more, and all but one of those increases were associated with Christmas or New Years. You have to go back to January 2002 to find a larger increase for the state.
By Occam's razor, the most likely explanation for an unbelievably large change in the UI numbers is that the numbers are indeed unbelievable. The information technology systems for North Carolina's social service agencies have suffered a number of embarrassing setbacks, including problems paying Medicaid claims and problems processing food stamp benefits, so the possibility of a processing glitch can't be ruled out.
As mentioned, this was also the same week as other changes in North Carolina's UI system took effect; something peculiar to those changes could have contributed to an artificial spike.
However, if the numbers are accurate, things just got horribly worse for North Carolina's workers.
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
NC legislature would give a gun to John Hinckley Jr.
Unbe-f***ing-lievable.
Both houses of the NC legislature have voted to strike the provision that "No individual who has been found not guilty by reason of insanity may petition a court for restoration under this section" from the NC statute regarding the restoration of gun rights (see Section 9 of HB 937).
Under this provision, if John Hinckley Jr. were a NC resident, he could petition to get his gun "rights" restored.
Both houses of the NC legislature have voted to strike the provision that "No individual who has been found not guilty by reason of insanity may petition a court for restoration under this section" from the NC statute regarding the restoration of gun rights (see Section 9 of HB 937).
Under this provision, if John Hinckley Jr. were a NC resident, he could petition to get his gun "rights" restored.
Sunday, July 21, 2013
US Airways' contribution$ to the Charlotte airport grab
The sudden and fierce determination of North Carolina Republicans to snatch the seemingly well-functioning Charlotte airport away from the city of Charlotte has been something of a head-scratcher.
However, a detailed story by the Charlotte Observer helps to fill in the background.
But draft legislation wasn't US Airways' only contribution to the airport grab (or to Sen. Rucho).
US Airways' political action committee followed up the delivery of the draft legislation in December with a $1,000 contribution to Sen. Rucho and $8,000 in contributions to other North Carolina politicians. Senator Rucho's campaign finance report indicates that his committee received the check on January 30, 2013.
Two weeks later on February 13 (time enough for the check to clear, you never know given the sorry financial state of air carriers), Sen. Rucho filed the authority-change legislation in the Senate. Sen. Tom Apodaca, who was also the recipient of a $1,000 contribution in January, was a co-sponsor on the legislation. Rep. Bill Brawley, who was a primary sponsor of a companion House bill, received $500.
Previous to its contributions in January, US Airways had not taken an especially big interest in North Carolina elections. In 2012 (an election year), its PAC only reported $1,000 in contributions. Similarly, the PAC appears to have only made $1,000 in contributions in 2011. However, with draft legislation under review by Sen. Rucho, its contributions in a non-election year jumped to $9,000.
The suspect timing and unusually generous size of the contributions strongly suggest a quid pro quo. They also suggest that a criminal investigation may be in order.
NC politicians have taken dim view in recent years toward tenants' rights, but maybe some well-timed contributions from Charlotte airport's largest tenant are changing that.
However, a detailed story by the Charlotte Observer helps to fill in the background.
In early 2012, an executive with US Airways, the airport’s largest tenant, had a tense meeting with then-City Manager Curt Walton over how much say the airline would have over (Charlotte Aiport Aviation Director Jerry) Orr’s eventual successor.Got that? US Airways--an out-of-state corporation--wrote draft legislation to change Charlotte's airport authority. That draft was passed to Sen. Bob Rucho who then submitted legislation to carry out US Airways' bidding.
Planning consultant Michael Gallis, who has worked with Orr, heard about the tensions and raised concerns with Stan Campbell, a former member of the City Council and Airport Advisory Committee. At the same time, developer Johnny Harris was warning of the politicization of the airport by city leaders he saw as “paralyzed” over a dispute about building a streetcar. US Airways forwarded a draft of possible authority legislation to Campbell. In December, Campbell approached Sen. Bob Rucho, a Matthews Republican.
But the prospect of an authority only became public in February, shortly before Rucho filed legislation. He said lawmakers and still-unidentified business leaders thought the city was about to stop managing the airport “wisely.”
But draft legislation wasn't US Airways' only contribution to the airport grab (or to Sen. Rucho).
US Airways' political action committee followed up the delivery of the draft legislation in December with a $1,000 contribution to Sen. Rucho and $8,000 in contributions to other North Carolina politicians. Senator Rucho's campaign finance report indicates that his committee received the check on January 30, 2013.
Two weeks later on February 13 (time enough for the check to clear, you never know given the sorry financial state of air carriers), Sen. Rucho filed the authority-change legislation in the Senate. Sen. Tom Apodaca, who was also the recipient of a $1,000 contribution in January, was a co-sponsor on the legislation. Rep. Bill Brawley, who was a primary sponsor of a companion House bill, received $500.
Previous to its contributions in January, US Airways had not taken an especially big interest in North Carolina elections. In 2012 (an election year), its PAC only reported $1,000 in contributions. Similarly, the PAC appears to have only made $1,000 in contributions in 2011. However, with draft legislation under review by Sen. Rucho, its contributions in a non-election year jumped to $9,000.
The suspect timing and unusually generous size of the contributions strongly suggest a quid pro quo. They also suggest that a criminal investigation may be in order.
NC politicians have taken dim view in recent years toward tenants' rights, but maybe some well-timed contributions from Charlotte airport's largest tenant are changing that.
Gov. McCrory unleashes another "nightmare" on the poor
Gov. McCrory, who has enacted legislation to strip unemployment benefits from more than 70,000 long-term out-of-work North Carolinians and cut earned income tax credit payments for low-income working families, has now unleashed a new "nightmare" on poor families and children--a malfunctioning Medicaid payment system.
The News Observer reports
No matter, Gov. McCrory unleashed the NC Tracks system anyway.
The News Observer reports
The state Department of Health and Human Services warned providers to expect a few bumps after the new Medicaid billing system came online July 1. For many, the bumpy weeks have been worse than they imagined, and they have not been told when the frustration will end.The problems were foreseen. In May, the state auditor reported that results from more than one-third of 834 critical system tests were missing. The auditor also reported numerous other problems, including the lack of formal "go/no-go" criteria to determine whether the system would be ready to operate on July 1. The auditor further recommended that "the Department should re-evaluate its current 'Go' decision for July 1, 2013."
...“This change with NC Tracks has been anything but successful,” said Susan Walsh, office manager at the Purcell Clinic, a pediatric practice in Laurinburg. “They have serious defects . Practices aren’t getting paid, which is very serious for all of us financially.”
Doctors, dentists, pharmacists, in-home care providers and medial equipment companies say the new software system is riddled with problems. Pharmacists cannot get approval to fill some prescriptions for medicine. Companies submit bills only to learn that they’ve vanished into the system. Doctors’ offices do not have at the ready information they need to know which patients they should treat or whether they need to collect copayments – information the old payment system provided.
...NC Tracks is “really a nightmare,” said Beth Bowen, executive director of the N.C. Association for Medical Equipment Services.
“We were expecting glitches,” she said. “We weren’t expecting complete failure of the system here, and that’s what happened.”
No matter, Gov. McCrory unleashed the NC Tracks system anyway.
Friday, July 19, 2013
What's Greensboro got to do to get a little love?
Bloomberg profiles the development of the new HondaJet (a.k.a. the "Flying Acura") but fails to mention where the darn thing is being built.
North Carolina employment stuck in neutral
The latest estimates from the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) show that North Carolina's employment situation remains stuck in neutral.
The DOL's establishment figures indicate that the state added just under 6,000 payroll jobs in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis. While this reverses the last three months of job declines, it's hardly cause for celebration, as the total number of payroll jobs in June remained lower than the levels from February and March.
The DOL's household figures were worse. The estimated number of unemployed people was essentially unchanged, but the estimated size of the labor force shrank by 10,000.
The state's employment trends stand in sharp contrast to the national trends, which have been pretty solid for several months running.
Two years ago Republicans promised that tax cuts and government downsizing would accelerate the economy. Instead, they appear to have broken the clutch.
The DOL's establishment figures indicate that the state added just under 6,000 payroll jobs in June on a seasonally-adjusted basis. While this reverses the last three months of job declines, it's hardly cause for celebration, as the total number of payroll jobs in June remained lower than the levels from February and March.
The DOL's household figures were worse. The estimated number of unemployed people was essentially unchanged, but the estimated size of the labor force shrank by 10,000.
The state's employment trends stand in sharp contrast to the national trends, which have been pretty solid for several months running.
Two years ago Republicans promised that tax cuts and government downsizing would accelerate the economy. Instead, they appear to have broken the clutch.
Friday, July 5, 2013
Some good national job numbers but a sobering bottom line
The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that the country added nearly 200,000 non-farm jobs on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June. It also revised its estimates of job growth in April and May up to about 200,000 in those months.
The most recent figures continue a trend of solid, though hardly overwhelming (marginally whelming?) job growth. Overall, the U.S. has added 182,000 non-farm jobs per month over the past year.
Job growth certainly beats job decline. However, the growth figures are just barely exceeding the growth in the working-age population, which gives rise to the following sobering graph of the percent over time of the civilian, non-institutionalized population aged 16 and over that is working on a seasonally-adjusted basis:
At the start of the Great Recession, the percent of the adult population that was employed was around 63 percent. The rate plummeted during the recession, and since late 2009 has been mired at or below 58.7 percent. Despite solid job growth in the last two months, the June employment percentage was only able to creep back up to that 58.7 percent high-water mark.
The U.S. has been steadily adding jobs since early 2010, but there will be little cause for celebration until it consistently adds jobs fast enough to raise the employment-to-population ratio.
The most recent figures continue a trend of solid, though hardly overwhelming (marginally whelming?) job growth. Overall, the U.S. has added 182,000 non-farm jobs per month over the past year.
Job growth certainly beats job decline. However, the growth figures are just barely exceeding the growth in the working-age population, which gives rise to the following sobering graph of the percent over time of the civilian, non-institutionalized population aged 16 and over that is working on a seasonally-adjusted basis:
At the start of the Great Recession, the percent of the adult population that was employed was around 63 percent. The rate plummeted during the recession, and since late 2009 has been mired at or below 58.7 percent. Despite solid job growth in the last two months, the June employment percentage was only able to creep back up to that 58.7 percent high-water mark.
The U.S. has been steadily adding jobs since early 2010, but there will be little cause for celebration until it consistently adds jobs fast enough to raise the employment-to-population ratio.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Economic Roundup®
North Carolina's total economic output, its state gross domestic product (GDP), was $456.0 billion last year, a $19.8 billion improvement over its output the year before.
I mention these figures to provide context for a big pile of money that North Carolina is about to send back to the U.S. Treasury.
In their fever to reward their big business benefactors, North Carolina's Republican legislature and governor earlier this year enacted draconian cuts in the state's unemployment insurance system. Among other things, the cuts reduce the maximum benefits that jobless people can receive from $500 per week to $350 per week, reduce the maximum weeks of state-funded benefits from six months to just under five months, and make jobless people wait an additional week before receiving benefits.
Since 2008, the federal government has paid Extended Unemployment Compensation (EUC) to jobless people who have exhausted their state-funded benefits. At one point, the federal government was covering up to a year and a half of extra benefits; currently it is covering just under a year of extra benefits in states, like North Carolina, with extremely high unemployment rates.
The federal benefits have always been intended to extend state-funded unemployment insurance benefits, not to replace them. Accordingly, the federal government conditions its payments on the state holding up its end of the bargain and continuing to fund its own program.
As North Carolina's legislature and governor fully knew when making their changes, the cuts in benefits and duration ran afoul of this federal provision. As a result, when the cuts are implemented, starting after this weekend, the federal government will end its EUC payments in the state.
As WRAL reports
The loss of funding will also hurt the broader economy, which brings me back to those original GDP figures. At a time when the state's economy is only growing slowly, unevenly, and actually shedding jobs; the legislature and governor are about to pull $700 million directly out of the state's economy. That figure represents 3.5 percent of all of the economic growth that the state experienced last year.
In addition, jobless people spend the benefits that they receive. This puts money into the pockets of other North Carolinians, who in turn spend some of that money, putting money into the pockets of yet more North Carolinians, and so on. Mark Zandi has estimated that each dollar of EUC spending contributes a further $1.55 in economic growth (in fact, Zandi testified, "There was arguably no more effective form of government support during the recession."). If you add in the multiplier effect, the hit to the state's GDP from the loss of the EUC increases to 9 percent of 2012's total growth.
Instead of fertilizing economic growth, the legislature and governor have effectively doused the state's economy with the policy version of Roundup®.
I mention these figures to provide context for a big pile of money that North Carolina is about to send back to the U.S. Treasury.
In their fever to reward their big business benefactors, North Carolina's Republican legislature and governor earlier this year enacted draconian cuts in the state's unemployment insurance system. Among other things, the cuts reduce the maximum benefits that jobless people can receive from $500 per week to $350 per week, reduce the maximum weeks of state-funded benefits from six months to just under five months, and make jobless people wait an additional week before receiving benefits.
Since 2008, the federal government has paid Extended Unemployment Compensation (EUC) to jobless people who have exhausted their state-funded benefits. At one point, the federal government was covering up to a year and a half of extra benefits; currently it is covering just under a year of extra benefits in states, like North Carolina, with extremely high unemployment rates.
The federal benefits have always been intended to extend state-funded unemployment insurance benefits, not to replace them. Accordingly, the federal government conditions its payments on the state holding up its end of the bargain and continuing to fund its own program.
As North Carolina's legislature and governor fully knew when making their changes, the cuts in benefits and duration ran afoul of this federal provision. As a result, when the cuts are implemented, starting after this weekend, the federal government will end its EUC payments in the state.
As WRAL reports
Because North Carolina leaders cut average weekly benefits for new claims, about 170,000 workers whose state benefits expire this year will lose more than $700 million in EUC payments, the U.S. Labor Department said.The loss of EUC funding will be devastating to the hardest hit North Carolinians--170,000 former workers who have already been without jobs for six months or more.
The loss of funding will also hurt the broader economy, which brings me back to those original GDP figures. At a time when the state's economy is only growing slowly, unevenly, and actually shedding jobs; the legislature and governor are about to pull $700 million directly out of the state's economy. That figure represents 3.5 percent of all of the economic growth that the state experienced last year.
In addition, jobless people spend the benefits that they receive. This puts money into the pockets of other North Carolinians, who in turn spend some of that money, putting money into the pockets of yet more North Carolinians, and so on. Mark Zandi has estimated that each dollar of EUC spending contributes a further $1.55 in economic growth (in fact, Zandi testified, "There was arguably no more effective form of government support during the recession."). If you add in the multiplier effect, the hit to the state's GDP from the loss of the EUC increases to 9 percent of 2012's total growth.
Instead of fertilizing economic growth, the legislature and governor have effectively doused the state's economy with the policy version of Roundup®.
Friday, June 21, 2013
More job losses in North Carolina
Remember how the last round of Republican-led cuts in personal, corporate, and sales tax in North Carolina in 2011 were supposed to lead to extraordinary job growth? Well, it's been nearly two years, and we're still waiting.
The U.S. Department of Labor released its latest estimates of state employment figures. For the third month in a row, North Carolina lost jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Department of Labor estimates that the state lost about 400 jobs in March, 700 in April and another 5,900 jobs in May. Those losses occurred despite modest employment growth in the country as a whole.
The number of unemployed people is down in the state by about 30,000 over the last three months, lowering the unemployment rate from 9.4 percent to 8.8 percent. However, all of that decline (and then some) has come from a decrease in the number of people in the labor force. The number of people working or looking for work has shrunk by about 45,000 over the same period.
What should we expect if Republicans follow through with their current plans to cut taxes again for the wealthy corporations and people?
More of the same.
The U.S. Department of Labor released its latest estimates of state employment figures. For the third month in a row, North Carolina lost jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Department of Labor estimates that the state lost about 400 jobs in March, 700 in April and another 5,900 jobs in May. Those losses occurred despite modest employment growth in the country as a whole.
The number of unemployed people is down in the state by about 30,000 over the last three months, lowering the unemployment rate from 9.4 percent to 8.8 percent. However, all of that decline (and then some) has come from a decrease in the number of people in the labor force. The number of people working or looking for work has shrunk by about 45,000 over the same period.
What should we expect if Republicans follow through with their current plans to cut taxes again for the wealthy corporations and people?
More of the same.
Friday, June 7, 2013
The unemployment rate ticked up, and that's okay
The U.S. Department of Labor released establishment and household employment estimates for May this morning, which indicated that the country gained 175,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis but that the unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 7.5 to 7.6 percent.
The payroll jobs figure is modestly good news and is consistent with the slow and uneven growth in the economy. As in previous months, the loss of jobs from government austerity continues to be a drag on job growth. The sequestered federal government shed 14,000 jobs in May (on top of 31,000 jobs lost in the previous two months); state governments dropped another 2,000 employees. Job growth in the goods producing sector (manufacturing, construction, and mining) was flat. Over the last year, goods producers have only added 250,000 jobs, while service providers have added nearly 2 million.
There is also some good news in the higher unemployment rate. The number of unemployed people rose by 101,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, which seems bad until you consider that the increase was due to a surge in the number of people who entered the labor force and were looking for work. The survey data indicate that 420,000 people joined the labor force in May.
The payroll jobs figure is modestly good news and is consistent with the slow and uneven growth in the economy. As in previous months, the loss of jobs from government austerity continues to be a drag on job growth. The sequestered federal government shed 14,000 jobs in May (on top of 31,000 jobs lost in the previous two months); state governments dropped another 2,000 employees. Job growth in the goods producing sector (manufacturing, construction, and mining) was flat. Over the last year, goods producers have only added 250,000 jobs, while service providers have added nearly 2 million.
There is also some good news in the higher unemployment rate. The number of unemployed people rose by 101,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, which seems bad until you consider that the increase was due to a surge in the number of people who entered the labor force and were looking for work. The survey data indicate that 420,000 people joined the labor force in May.
Monday, June 3, 2013
Killer taxes on the poor
As North Carolina Republicans prepare to steam-roll their sweeping, regressive tax changes through the House and Senate, it's worth considering the terrible harm that could result.
In their 2011 book, Taxing the Poor: Doing Damage to the Truly Disadvantaged, Katherine Newman, a Professor and Dean at Johns Hopkins University, and Rourke O'Brien, a graduate student at Princeton University, found that increasing the regressivity of state and local taxes--as NC Republicans are proposing--led to to
Also, the researchers considered changes within states in these outcomes and in tax regressivity over time; thus, their analyses accounted for unique permanent characteristics of the states, like the health or legal systems, that could give rise to spurious correlations.
Newman and O'Brien also looked specifically at grocery taxes (one of the taxes that would be raised under the Senate leadership's plan). Besides the harmful effects listed above, Newman and O'Brien found that higher food taxes led to increased rates of obesity, as poor people substituted from high-cost healthy foods to lower-cost unhealthy foods.
Rank-and-file Republicans who profess to respect life, be tough on crime, and promote family values would do well to consider the deaths, crimes, high school drop-outs, out-of-wedlock births, and worse health that their leaders' tax policies will deliver.
In their 2011 book, Taxing the Poor: Doing Damage to the Truly Disadvantaged, Katherine Newman, a Professor and Dean at Johns Hopkins University, and Rourke O'Brien, a graduate student at Princeton University, found that increasing the regressivity of state and local taxes--as NC Republicans are proposing--led to to
- higher mortality rates--"for every $100 increase in taxes on the poor, the mortality rates increased by 6.6 per 100,000" (p. 102),
- increased violent and property crime rates--"the same dollar increase in taxes is associated with an increase in the state property crime rate of 78.3 per 100,000" and "an increase in the state violent crime rate of 12.3 per 100,000" (p. 103),
- lower high school completion rates--"for every $100 increase in taxes on the poor...the state high school completion rate decreases by 0.26 percentage points" (p. 103), and
- greater proportions of out-of-wedlock births--"a $100 increase in taxes on the poor is associated with a 0.07 percentage point increase in the percentage of births to unmarried mothers" (pp. 103-4).
Also, the researchers considered changes within states in these outcomes and in tax regressivity over time; thus, their analyses accounted for unique permanent characteristics of the states, like the health or legal systems, that could give rise to spurious correlations.
Newman and O'Brien also looked specifically at grocery taxes (one of the taxes that would be raised under the Senate leadership's plan). Besides the harmful effects listed above, Newman and O'Brien found that higher food taxes led to increased rates of obesity, as poor people substituted from high-cost healthy foods to lower-cost unhealthy foods.
Rank-and-file Republicans who profess to respect life, be tough on crime, and promote family values would do well to consider the deaths, crimes, high school drop-outs, out-of-wedlock births, and worse health that their leaders' tax policies will deliver.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Paying the wealthy on the backs of poor and middle-class families
The North Carolina legislature is now considering three different tax schemes that each increase taxes on poor and middle-class families while lowering taxes for corporations and the wealthiest families.
All three plans would expand the sales tax base and increase tax revenues from consumption. This would increase taxes for everyone but would disproportionately affect poor and middle-class households because they spend a higher proportion of their income on consumption.
All three plans lower taxes on corporate profits. Currently NC's corporate tax rate is close to the median for the country, and the proportion of tax revenue that comes from corporate income is similarly near the middle for the country.
All three plans also adopt flat proportional taxes on personal income that slash tax rates for households that receive more than $100,000 but also make changes that could make more of lower-income and elderly households' income taxable.
Two of the plans also eliminate taxes on multi-million dollar estates. Those same two plans would also require further cuts to government services, which would fall disproportionately on the poor.
Poor and middle-class households have suffered the most from the economic downturn. The Pew Research Center reports that from 2009 to 2011, households in the top 7 percent of the wealth distribution saw their wealth increase by 28 percent, while all other households saw their wealth decline by 4 percent. The Census Bureau reports that the share of income going to the top 20 percent of households passed 51 percent in 2011, up from about 50 percent at the start of the recession. Increasing the tax burden for poor and middle-income households compounds this misery.
Any tax reform is going to increase taxes for some people while reducing them for others. However, there are ways to reform and simplify taxes that are less harmful to the poor. For example, an expansion of the sales tax base could be coupled reductions in the sales tax rate. Reductions in personal income tax deductions and exemptions could be coupled with reductions in all rates, leaving the progressivity of income taxes in place.
All three plans would expand the sales tax base and increase tax revenues from consumption. This would increase taxes for everyone but would disproportionately affect poor and middle-class households because they spend a higher proportion of their income on consumption.
All three plans lower taxes on corporate profits. Currently NC's corporate tax rate is close to the median for the country, and the proportion of tax revenue that comes from corporate income is similarly near the middle for the country.
All three plans also adopt flat proportional taxes on personal income that slash tax rates for households that receive more than $100,000 but also make changes that could make more of lower-income and elderly households' income taxable.
Two of the plans also eliminate taxes on multi-million dollar estates. Those same two plans would also require further cuts to government services, which would fall disproportionately on the poor.
Poor and middle-class households have suffered the most from the economic downturn. The Pew Research Center reports that from 2009 to 2011, households in the top 7 percent of the wealth distribution saw their wealth increase by 28 percent, while all other households saw their wealth decline by 4 percent. The Census Bureau reports that the share of income going to the top 20 percent of households passed 51 percent in 2011, up from about 50 percent at the start of the recession. Increasing the tax burden for poor and middle-income households compounds this misery.
Any tax reform is going to increase taxes for some people while reducing them for others. However, there are ways to reform and simplify taxes that are less harmful to the poor. For example, an expansion of the sales tax base could be coupled reductions in the sales tax rate. Reductions in personal income tax deductions and exemptions could be coupled with reductions in all rates, leaving the progressivity of income taxes in place.
Friday, May 10, 2013
NC Republicans hurting most to benefit a few
You have to ask yourself, who exactly does North Carolina's Republican legislature represent? They certainly don't represent the majority of NC households, if their grossly misnamed Tax Fairness Act is any guide.
The News & Observer got its hands on an analysis by the the legislature's Fiscal Research Division, which shows that even though the plan will reduce revenues overall, it will nevertheless result in higher taxes for most NC households.
Put simply, Sen. Phil Berger and the Republicans have simply stopped caring about who is hurt by their reactionary rampage through Raleigh.
The News & Observer got its hands on an analysis by the the legislature's Fiscal Research Division, which shows that even though the plan will reduce revenues overall, it will nevertheless result in higher taxes for most NC households.
The majority of taxpayers likely would see a tax increase after the plan is fully implemented, according to early long-term projections from legislative fiscal researchers who analyzed the potential legislation – not a tax break as Senate Republican leaders suggested when announcing the plan this week.Enormous tax cuts for the wealthy few will be financed by higher taxes and slashed protections for the middle- and low-income majority.
A taxpayer with a federal adjusted gross income below $51,000 could pay an average $100 to $200 more in the 2017 tax year. Based on current tax brackets, 2.3 million taxpayers would fit that category, according to the analysis, while 1.8 million taxpayers could expect an average $300 to $3,000 tax cut that year.
Put simply, Sen. Phil Berger and the Republicans have simply stopped caring about who is hurt by their reactionary rampage through Raleigh.
Friday, May 3, 2013
What a difference a month makes
Last month's moaning and groaning about slowing job growth will and should be quickly forgotten. The latest national jobs report shows that the job market continues to improve.
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made its preliminary estimate that non-farm jobs increased by 165,000 in April on a seasonally-adjusted basis. As importantly, the BLS also reported that last month's preliminary estimate of job growth (the source of the aforementioned moaning and groaning) undershot the mark by 50,000 jobs -- instead of adding 88,000 jobs in March, the BLS now estimates that the U.S. gained 138,000 jobs. The BLS revised February's growth number even more from 268,000 to 332,000. The figures for March and April are still subject to revision, so there's a good chance that the final growth figures will be stronger still.
The headline seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate continued to inch down, reaching 7.5 percent. The most encouraging thing in the unemployment figures was that the lower unemployment rate resulted from growth in both the number of workers and the number of people in the labor force.
The economy is still battling strong headwinds, especially from the expiration of stimulus tax breaks and the decrease in spending from the sequester. Some of these headwinds show up in the job numbers themselves. Overall job growth occurred despite the loss of 11,000 public sector jobs last month. Overall, the public sector has shed 89,000 jobs since last year.
It's gratifying that the rest of the job market continues to plod forward, even under such trying circumstances.
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made its preliminary estimate that non-farm jobs increased by 165,000 in April on a seasonally-adjusted basis. As importantly, the BLS also reported that last month's preliminary estimate of job growth (the source of the aforementioned moaning and groaning) undershot the mark by 50,000 jobs -- instead of adding 88,000 jobs in March, the BLS now estimates that the U.S. gained 138,000 jobs. The BLS revised February's growth number even more from 268,000 to 332,000. The figures for March and April are still subject to revision, so there's a good chance that the final growth figures will be stronger still.
The headline seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate continued to inch down, reaching 7.5 percent. The most encouraging thing in the unemployment figures was that the lower unemployment rate resulted from growth in both the number of workers and the number of people in the labor force.
The economy is still battling strong headwinds, especially from the expiration of stimulus tax breaks and the decrease in spending from the sequester. Some of these headwinds show up in the job numbers themselves. Overall job growth occurred despite the loss of 11,000 public sector jobs last month. Overall, the public sector has shed 89,000 jobs since last year.
It's gratifying that the rest of the job market continues to plod forward, even under such trying circumstances.
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Another accidental shooting
CNN is reporting another accidental shooting tragedy.
The company also has testimonials that encourage giving the guns to small children. Two examples
A Kentucky mother stepped outside of her home just for a few minutes, but it was long enough for her 5-year-old son to accidentally shoot his 2-year-old sister with the .22-caliber rifle he got for his birthday, state officials said.It's hard to comprehend how a rifle, even the "little" Crickett rifle, would be appropriate for a 5-year-old. But Crickett marketing materials (pictures are shown below) encourage putting guns in the hands of even younger children.
Little Caroline Starks died Tuesday in Burkesville, in southern Kentucky, according to Cumberland County Coroner Gary White."The little Crickett rifle is a single-shot rifle and it has a child safety," White said of the weapon. "It's just a tragic situation."
The company also has testimonials that encourage giving the guns to small children. Two examples
Thank you for supporting the next generation of recreational shooters. My 4 1/2 year old daughter thought the "pink one" was far superior to a black synthetic stock,who am i to argue? I never would have thought that a pink rifle would be sitting in the rack in the gun room.
Just wanted to drop you a note, to let you know what a great product you offer. I just recently bought two Crickett .22's, one pink and one black. They are exceptionally accurate, and just the right size for my 5 and 7 year olds. They are awesome and we couldn't be happier. Thanks So Much!!!!!"
Monday, April 29, 2013
More than 1 million shot in the U.S. in the last decade
A disturbing coda to the figures on gunshot injuries and fatalities that I posted on Saturday.
The post focused on trends in U.S. shootings and how they have increased over the last decade. The post only briefly touched on the enormous scale of the carnage.
If you add the figures together, they indicate that more than one million people were shot in the U.S. in the last decade (2002-11) for which numbers are available. About 310,000 of these shootings were fatal.
One million people exceeds the combined populations of Charlotte and Winston-Salem.
310,000 people exceeds the population of Greensboro.
Put another way, if a service was held to read the names of each of the decade's million-plus U.S. shooting victims, the speakers took just three seconds per name, and the speakers read continuously day and night, it would take more than a month to read the names. While the last decade's victims were being remembered, more than 10,000 additional people in the U.S. would be shot.
The post focused on trends in U.S. shootings and how they have increased over the last decade. The post only briefly touched on the enormous scale of the carnage.
If you add the figures together, they indicate that more than one million people were shot in the U.S. in the last decade (2002-11) for which numbers are available. About 310,000 of these shootings were fatal.
One million people exceeds the combined populations of Charlotte and Winston-Salem.
310,000 people exceeds the population of Greensboro.
Put another way, if a service was held to read the names of each of the decade's million-plus U.S. shooting victims, the speakers took just three seconds per name, and the speakers read continuously day and night, it would take more than a month to read the names. While the last decade's victims were being remembered, more than 10,000 additional people in the U.S. would be shot.
Saturday, April 27, 2013
The increasing chances of being shot
Americans' risks of being shot by a gun were higher in 2011 than a decade earlier.
The figure below shows figures from the Centers for Disease Control WISQARS database supplemented with preliminary mortality data for 2011 on people in the U.S. who either suffered a non-fatal firearms injury (the blue bars) or were killed by a firearm (the red bars). The sum of the figures indicates the total number of people who were shot.
In 2011, just over 106,000 people were shot in the U.S., or about one out of every 2,940 Americans. Just over 32,000 of these shooting injuries were fatal. A decade earlier just under 93,000 people were shot (about one out of every 3,080 Americans) with just under 30,000 fatalities. When you adjust for the increase in the population and average the changes across all 11 years, the chances of being shot rose by 0.8% per year.
Nearly two-thirds of these shootings were assaults and homicides; figures appear below. In 2011, there were just under 67,000 firearms assaults and homicides compared to just over 52,000 a decade earlier. Adjusting for population growth and averaging changes across years, the chances of an American suffering a homicide or an assault injury at the end of a gun climbed by 1.7% per year.
Accidental shootings were down over the decade, falling from 18,500 in 2001 to 15,500 in 2011. Adjusting for population size and averaging the changes over the decade, the chances of being accidentally shot fell by 2.3% per year. While the gun accident figure might seem encouraging, it is worth considering that the chances of being accidentally cut or stabbed fell even more (2.6% per year).
More guns, more shootings, more misery.
The figure below shows figures from the Centers for Disease Control WISQARS database supplemented with preliminary mortality data for 2011 on people in the U.S. who either suffered a non-fatal firearms injury (the blue bars) or were killed by a firearm (the red bars). The sum of the figures indicates the total number of people who were shot.
In 2011, just over 106,000 people were shot in the U.S., or about one out of every 2,940 Americans. Just over 32,000 of these shooting injuries were fatal. A decade earlier just under 93,000 people were shot (about one out of every 3,080 Americans) with just under 30,000 fatalities. When you adjust for the increase in the population and average the changes across all 11 years, the chances of being shot rose by 0.8% per year.
Nearly two-thirds of these shootings were assaults and homicides; figures appear below. In 2011, there were just under 67,000 firearms assaults and homicides compared to just over 52,000 a decade earlier. Adjusting for population growth and averaging changes across years, the chances of an American suffering a homicide or an assault injury at the end of a gun climbed by 1.7% per year.
Accidental shootings were down over the decade, falling from 18,500 in 2001 to 15,500 in 2011. Adjusting for population size and averaging the changes over the decade, the chances of being accidentally shot fell by 2.3% per year. While the gun accident figure might seem encouraging, it is worth considering that the chances of being accidentally cut or stabbed fell even more (2.6% per year).
More guns, more shootings, more misery.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Toughest milk monitor this side of the Pecos
The Charlotte Observer reports more evidence that the flood of guns puts all of us at risk.
A 7-year-old brought was taken into custody after allegedly bringing a gun to school Thursday, the Alexander County Sheriff’s Office says.Thank goodness the school staff was able to secure the gun before a bigger tragedy unfolded.
Sheriff Chris Bowman says the gun was seized around midday by staff members at Sugar Loaf Elementary School, on N.C. 16 a few miles north of Taylorsville. Students told teachers about the gun, authorities say.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
McCrony Capitalism
North Carolina's prohibition against corporate political contributions to state candidates are abundantly clear, "No candidate,
political committee, political party, or treasurer shall accept any
contribution made by any corporation, foreign or domestic, regardless of
whether such corporation does business in the State of North Carolina, or made
by any business entity, labor union, professional association, or insurance
company."
Nevertheless, as much as $235,000 in funds from an electronic sweepstakes software company, International Internet Technologies, may have made its way into the 2012 NC state elections, including into donations that were mailed and hand-delivered by the lobbying firm that employed then-candidate McCrory and that included the business card of Senate majority leader Phil Berger's former deputy chief of staff.
These are the same funds that are tied to the indicted sweepstakes operator, Chase Burns, who is alleged to have participated in running a veterans charity as a means of hiding sweepstakes profits from the the IRS.
Despite Burns' large contributions and his enlistment of the lobbying firm that employed McCrory, the governor has denied meeting with him or other electronic sweepstakes lobbyists. However, the governor's spokesperson is now parsing that comment, saying "the governor was clearly referring to Chase Burns, Florida clients and no one else in his answers."
The Democratic chairman and ranking Republican member of the State Elections Board think that the matter should be investigated. Such an investigation could involve subpoenas and requirements to testify under oath. However, Republican-initiated legislation might conveniently knock them off the board.
Altogether, Gov. McCrory received over $82,000 in contributions from sweepstakes operators, including Burns; House Speaker Thom Tillis received over $87,000; and Senate Leader Phil Berger received $60,000. Despite this, the governor and legislative leaders don't indicate seeing any conflict of interest in fiddling with the State Elections Board.
Were the contributions illegally made? Were they illegally accepted? Were they illegally coordinated? If the governor didn't meet with Burns or other "Florida clients," which lobbyists or operators did he meet with and what did they discuss?
Don't look for the governor or his McCronies to provide answers or facilitate an investigation.
Nevertheless, as much as $235,000 in funds from an electronic sweepstakes software company, International Internet Technologies, may have made its way into the 2012 NC state elections, including into donations that were mailed and hand-delivered by the lobbying firm that employed then-candidate McCrory and that included the business card of Senate majority leader Phil Berger's former deputy chief of staff.
These are the same funds that are tied to the indicted sweepstakes operator, Chase Burns, who is alleged to have participated in running a veterans charity as a means of hiding sweepstakes profits from the the IRS.
Despite Burns' large contributions and his enlistment of the lobbying firm that employed McCrory, the governor has denied meeting with him or other electronic sweepstakes lobbyists. However, the governor's spokesperson is now parsing that comment, saying "the governor was clearly referring to Chase Burns, Florida clients and no one else in his answers."
The Democratic chairman and ranking Republican member of the State Elections Board think that the matter should be investigated. Such an investigation could involve subpoenas and requirements to testify under oath. However, Republican-initiated legislation might conveniently knock them off the board.
Altogether, Gov. McCrory received over $82,000 in contributions from sweepstakes operators, including Burns; House Speaker Thom Tillis received over $87,000; and Senate Leader Phil Berger received $60,000. Despite this, the governor and legislative leaders don't indicate seeing any conflict of interest in fiddling with the State Elections Board.
Were the contributions illegally made? Were they illegally accepted? Were they illegally coordinated? If the governor didn't meet with Burns or other "Florida clients," which lobbyists or operators did he meet with and what did they discuss?
Don't look for the governor or his McCronies to provide answers or facilitate an investigation.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Guns do kill people
Gun apologists are fond of saying that "guns don't kill people -- people kill people." How then to explain this story from the Charlotte Observer.
The gun lobby's strategy of putting more dangerous and malfunctioning guns into the hands of more people increases the odds of these tragedies.
Jasmine Thar never had a chance, and arming her, her friends, or anyone else wouldn't have helped.
Nearly two years after a Charlotte teenager died and two others were wounded in a mysterious shooting in eastern North Carolina, the Columbus County district attorney has determined a gun malfunction is to blame.The story goes on to describe a well-known defect in the model of rifle that would have cost "pennies per gun" to fix.
The bullet that struck and killed Jasmine Thar, a 16-year-old Ardrey Kell High student, over Christmas break in 2011 was fired from a rifle that accidentally discharged, District Attorney Jonathan David said in a Monday news conference with Thar’s family.
The gun lobby's strategy of putting more dangerous and malfunctioning guns into the hands of more people increases the odds of these tragedies.
Jasmine Thar never had a chance, and arming her, her friends, or anyone else wouldn't have helped.
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