Just when I was starting to miss (recover from) some of the political back and forth back home, I came across this.
It's sort of like the comment section on Ed Cone's blog but with Aussie accents.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
"Southernomics" in NC with a vengeance
Michael Lind at Salon.com provides an insightful summary of the "southern" (read conservative) political economic strategy to disempower workers.
The purpose of the age-old economic development strategy of the Southern states has never been to allow them to compete with other states or countries on the basis of superior innovation or living standards. Instead, for generations Southern economic policymakers have sought to secure a lucrative second-tier role for the South in the national and world economies, as a supplier of commodities like cotton and oil and gas and a source of cheap labor for footloose corporations. This strategy of specializing in commodities and cheap labor is intended to enrich the Southern oligarchy. It doesn’t enrich the majority of Southerners, white, black or brown, but it is not intended to.With the state's centrist to moderately conservative Democrats being replaced by radically conservative Republicans, North Carolina is seeing this strategy played out a vengeance.
... The essence of the Southern economic model is not low taxation, but a lack of bargaining power by Southern workers of all races. Bargaining power at the bottom of the income scale is created by tight labor markets; unions; minimum wage laws combined with unemployment insurance; and social insurance, such as Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
The Audacity of Nope
Showing his own profile in discourage, North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory agreed with Republican legislators that the state should not expand its Medicaid program nor run its own health exchange. His feeble excuse is that the state is too feeble.
Apparently, the Governor's last few years in the political wilderness have left him tanned, rested, and not ready.
Gov. Pat McCrory doesn’t think the state is ready to expand Medicaid or ready to run its own health exchanges – two provisions of the Affordable Care Act.According to the Governor, NC is not ready for better health and longer lives for hundreds of thousands of its most vulnerable citizens, tens of thousands of jobs, more productive workers, billions in economic output, and billions in savings in hospitals' uncompensated care.
McCrory’s office made the announcement Tuesday morning just hours before the state House is supposed to take up a bill that would bar the state from participating in those two actions. The Senate passed the bill last week.
Apparently, the Governor's last few years in the political wilderness have left him tanned, rested, and not ready.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Another job-killing measure from Raleigh
Along with its efforts to opt out of the Medicaid expansion, the Republican-led North Carolina General Assembly seems poised to score another own goal against the state's economy through its ill-considered plan to impose unprecedented, draconian cuts in workers' unemployment insurance benefits. The cuts are intended to speed the repayment of $2.4 billion in unemployment insurance debt that the state incurred during the Great Recession.
The legislation is punitive and removes important protections from NC's workers. But in addition, the legislation will substantially slow the already under-performing economy.
First, the state will forfeit hundreds of millions of dollars in federal extended unemployment benefit payments. Currently, state unemployment funds cover the first 26 weeks of unemployment insurance payments, and federal funds cover an additional 47 weeks in states with unemployment rates above 9 percent. Provisions in the federal program require states to maintain their programs in order to receive the extended benefits--the goal is to keep states from shifting unemployment insurance costs from themselves to the federal government. The upshot of this provision is that if NC cuts its unemployment insurance program, it will lose the federally-funded extended benefits. The loss will be devastating to the long-term unemployed, but it will also affect the broader economy by removing hundreds of millions of dollars.
Second, the state is setting itself up to pay off the unemployment insurance debt faster than it needs to. The early repayment of that debt removes hundreds of millions of additional dollars from the NC economy. The debt needs to be repaid, but by stretching out the payments, the state would push more of the "pain" into future years where hopefully the economy will be performing better and the payments would be easier to make.
The Republicans' plan will hurt vulnerable, struggling households in the state, but it will also hurt the state as a whole.
The legislation is punitive and removes important protections from NC's workers. But in addition, the legislation will substantially slow the already under-performing economy.
First, the state will forfeit hundreds of millions of dollars in federal extended unemployment benefit payments. Currently, state unemployment funds cover the first 26 weeks of unemployment insurance payments, and federal funds cover an additional 47 weeks in states with unemployment rates above 9 percent. Provisions in the federal program require states to maintain their programs in order to receive the extended benefits--the goal is to keep states from shifting unemployment insurance costs from themselves to the federal government. The upshot of this provision is that if NC cuts its unemployment insurance program, it will lose the federally-funded extended benefits. The loss will be devastating to the long-term unemployed, but it will also affect the broader economy by removing hundreds of millions of dollars.
Second, the state is setting itself up to pay off the unemployment insurance debt faster than it needs to. The early repayment of that debt removes hundreds of millions of additional dollars from the NC economy. The debt needs to be repaid, but by stretching out the payments, the state would push more of the "pain" into future years where hopefully the economy will be performing better and the payments would be easier to make.
The Republicans' plan will hurt vulnerable, struggling households in the state, but it will also hurt the state as a whole.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Medicaid expansion and jobs
"Own goals" in soccer occur when a team kicks the ball into its own net, resulting in a point for the other team. Own goals are usually accidents.
The Republican-led North Carolina General Assembly seems poised to score an own goal against its own economy--on purpose.
Legislation is moving forward in the General Assembly to opt out of the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. The expansion would provide health insurance to people living in households with incomes below 133 percent of the poverty line. The federal government would cover 100 percent of the costs for the first three years and 90 percent of the costs thereafter.
Besides extending coverage to about 400,000 poor NC residents who wouldn't get health insurance otherwise, the expansion would bring in $40 billion on net (about $50 billion in total spending), which would jolt the economy and create jobs.
A new report by Regional Economic Models, Inc. forecasts that the expansion would add nearly 6,000 jobs to the NC economy in the first year of the expansion, as participation in Medicaid starts to grow, and 20,000 to 25,000 jobs in subsequent years, as participation stabilizes at a higher level. A figure showing the predicted job growth appears below.
These are substantial numbers of jobs, especially for an economy that only managed to add 72,000 in total last year.
The Republican-led North Carolina General Assembly seems poised to score an own goal against its own economy--on purpose.
Legislation is moving forward in the General Assembly to opt out of the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. The expansion would provide health insurance to people living in households with incomes below 133 percent of the poverty line. The federal government would cover 100 percent of the costs for the first three years and 90 percent of the costs thereafter.
Besides extending coverage to about 400,000 poor NC residents who wouldn't get health insurance otherwise, the expansion would bring in $40 billion on net (about $50 billion in total spending), which would jolt the economy and create jobs.
A new report by Regional Economic Models, Inc. forecasts that the expansion would add nearly 6,000 jobs to the NC economy in the first year of the expansion, as participation in Medicaid starts to grow, and 20,000 to 25,000 jobs in subsequent years, as participation stabilizes at a higher level. A figure showing the predicted job growth appears below.
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| Figure from REMI report "A Contrast: Modeling the Macroeconomic Impact of 'Medicaid Expansion' in North Carolina. |
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Noses, faces, Medicaid expansion
As policy choices go, the direction North Carolina should take with respect to Medicaid expansion couldn't be clearer. However, we live in interesting times.
Medicaid is a public health insurance program for certain groups of poor and needy people, mostly poor children, poor elderly people, poor blind and disabled people, and recipients of federal cash assistance. With the exception of pregnant women and some parents, NC's Medicaid program generally does not cover able-bodied, working-age adults. Not surprisingly, hundreds of thousands of poor and near-poor working-age adults in the state are uninsured.
Provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are supposed to change that, starting in 2014. The ACA allows states to expand Medicaid eligibility to all low-income people, living in households with incomes below 133 percent of the federal poverty line. For the first three years of the expansion, the federal government will pay 100 percent of the costs. Starting in 2017, participating states will have to contribute $1 for every $9 that the federal government pays.
In the original legislation, states risked losing all their federal Medicaid money if they chose not to expand their programs. However, the Supreme Court decision upholding most of the ACA scaled that back, and non-participating states will now only forfeit the federal funds directly tied to the expansion. The Supreme Court made it less costly for states, like NC, controlled by the Party of No to, um, say "no."
While NC lawmakers have the ability to say "no," they would be hurting the state far more than they would be helping it.
Medicaid is a public health insurance program for certain groups of poor and needy people, mostly poor children, poor elderly people, poor blind and disabled people, and recipients of federal cash assistance. With the exception of pregnant women and some parents, NC's Medicaid program generally does not cover able-bodied, working-age adults. Not surprisingly, hundreds of thousands of poor and near-poor working-age adults in the state are uninsured.
Provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are supposed to change that, starting in 2014. The ACA allows states to expand Medicaid eligibility to all low-income people, living in households with incomes below 133 percent of the federal poverty line. For the first three years of the expansion, the federal government will pay 100 percent of the costs. Starting in 2017, participating states will have to contribute $1 for every $9 that the federal government pays.
In the original legislation, states risked losing all their federal Medicaid money if they chose not to expand their programs. However, the Supreme Court decision upholding most of the ACA scaled that back, and non-participating states will now only forfeit the federal funds directly tied to the expansion. The Supreme Court made it less costly for states, like NC, controlled by the Party of No to, um, say "no."
While NC lawmakers have the ability to say "no," they would be hurting the state far more than they would be helping it.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Cue the predictable response
...frankly if you want to take gender studies that’s fine, go to a private school and take it, but I don’t want to subsidize that if that’s not going to get someone a job. Right now, I’m looking for engineers. I’m looking for technicians. I’m looking for mechanics.”So complained North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory yesterday.
The governor has uncovered the ivory tower's dirty secret.
While the Republican legislature has bravely tried to grow the NC economy by firing teachers, police, and civil servants by the tens of thousands, the "educational elite" have undermined their heroic efforts and sunk the economy by graduating a flood of unemployable gender studies majors, Swahili speakers and navel-gazing philosophers.
Except, of course, that they haven't. The overwhelming majority of UNC system graduates complete career-oriented majors.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Gov. Jindal forgot something
In today's Washington Post, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal asks President Obama for a meeting to discuss the expansion of Medicaid under the American Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare).
Gov. Jindal overlooks an even bigger problem--hundreds of thousands of low-income households without insurance. The same Kaiser Family Foundation and Urban Institute report that he cites indicates that up to 398,000 low-income Louisianans (about one out of every 12 Lousianans) will gain health insurance through the Medicaid expansion in the next ten years and that the expansion will reduce the percentage of Louisianans without health insurance by up to 60 percent.
Gov. Jindal's prescription for hundreds of thousands of his state's citizens is to continue to go without health insurance while he (and other Republican governors and state houses) defer and delay.
Low-income uninsured households need to be part of the discussion.
As the implementation of Obamacare unfortunately nears, every governor must decide whether to expand Medicaid. This is not a simple question. Expanding Medicaid will significantly burden state budgets across the country.Gov. Jindal proceeds to describe how awful and inefficient Medicaid is--nevermind that states, and not the federal government, operate Medicaid programs and that states have enormous flexibility in setting the parameters of the program. But let's take Gov. Jindal's point at face value, Medicaid is far from perfect.
Our state’s analyses, and reports by organizations that have supported Obamacare, such as the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Urban Institute, estimate that such an expansion would cost Louisiana more than a billion dollars over the first 10 years.
Gov. Jindal overlooks an even bigger problem--hundreds of thousands of low-income households without insurance. The same Kaiser Family Foundation and Urban Institute report that he cites indicates that up to 398,000 low-income Louisianans (about one out of every 12 Lousianans) will gain health insurance through the Medicaid expansion in the next ten years and that the expansion will reduce the percentage of Louisianans without health insurance by up to 60 percent.
Gov. Jindal's prescription for hundreds of thousands of his state's citizens is to continue to go without health insurance while he (and other Republican governors and state houses) defer and delay.
Low-income uninsured households need to be part of the discussion.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Experimental evidence on discrimination against gay men and lesbians
Do gay men and lesbians face discrimination when applying for jobs? A Swedish experiment that was just published in the Southern Economic Journal indicates that they do.
In the experiment, researchers sent made-up e-mail inquiries to job openings throughout Sweden. The e-mail inquiries were identical--same wording and same age, schooling, occupation-specific experience, and surname for the fictitious candidates--except they randomly had a man's or woman's first name (Erik or Maria) and randomly included cues about the person's sexual orientation. E-mails meant to indicate heterosexual men mentioned having a wife, while e-mails for gay men mentioned a husband. Similar references to different- or same-sex spouses were constructed for heterosexual women and lesbians. Cues about sexual orientation were reinforced by a mention of participation in a civic activity (Swedish Red Cross for heterosexuals, Swedish Federation for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Rights for gay men and lesbians). The researchers then tracked the responses to the inquiries.
Overall, 30 percent of the fictitious e-mails sent on behalf of heterosexual male candidates and 32 percent of the e-mails sent on behalf of heterosexual female candidates got a positive response--either an invitation to interview or an outright job offer. In contrast, only 26 percent of the e-mails sent on behalf of gay men and lesbians generated positive responses.
In the experiment, researchers sent made-up e-mail inquiries to job openings throughout Sweden. The e-mail inquiries were identical--same wording and same age, schooling, occupation-specific experience, and surname for the fictitious candidates--except they randomly had a man's or woman's first name (Erik or Maria) and randomly included cues about the person's sexual orientation. E-mails meant to indicate heterosexual men mentioned having a wife, while e-mails for gay men mentioned a husband. Similar references to different- or same-sex spouses were constructed for heterosexual women and lesbians. Cues about sexual orientation were reinforced by a mention of participation in a civic activity (Swedish Red Cross for heterosexuals, Swedish Federation for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Rights for gay men and lesbians). The researchers then tracked the responses to the inquiries.
Overall, 30 percent of the fictitious e-mails sent on behalf of heterosexual male candidates and 32 percent of the e-mails sent on behalf of heterosexual female candidates got a positive response--either an invitation to interview or an outright job offer. In contrast, only 26 percent of the e-mails sent on behalf of gay men and lesbians generated positive responses.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
U.S. leads in manufacturing...artificial crises
The Washington Post cheers House Republicans' "novel plan" to suspend the artificially-created debt ceiling crisis and re-create it this summer.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that this is no way to run an economy.
If Congress focused more on manufacturing bipartisan solutions than artificial crises, we might all be doing better. Don't manufacture a crisis of your own by holding your breath.
House Republicans are advancing a novel plan to suspend enforcement of the federal debt limit through May 18, a move that would lift the threat of a government default and relieve the air of crisis that has surrounded their budget battle with President Obama.As the Post points out, we needn't worry about a lack of artificial crises. Suspending the debt ceiling fight clears the deck for a possible government shut-down if a new budget isn't set and for mindless across-the-board sequester cuts if an alternative debt reduction deal isn't reached.
The measure — set for a vote Wednesday in the House — would not resolve the dispute over how to control the national debt. But after the traumatic “fiscal cliff” episode at the end of last year, it would buy policymakers a little breathing room to continue the argument without another economy-rattling deadline just around the corner.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that this is no way to run an economy.
If Congress focused more on manufacturing bipartisan solutions than artificial crises, we might all be doing better. Don't manufacture a crisis of your own by holding your breath.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Civitas proposes taxing churches and orphanages
Churches, orphanages, and other charities currently don't have to worry about the tax man in North Carolina. They aren't charged income or corporate taxes; they can avoid sales and use taxes by claiming refunds, and certain sales by the organizations are exempt from sales tax.
However, these institutions will have to worry if the John W. Pope Civitas Institute succeeds in its proposal to raise and expand NC's sales tax.
Civitas calls for "repealing current exemptions, preferential rates, and refunds" for the sales tax. The current NC tax code allows for several refunds; the refunds and their estimated FY 2012 values are shown in the table below. The biggest refund category is for non-profit organizations, including "churches, orphanages and other charitable or religious institutions."
However, these institutions will have to worry if the John W. Pope Civitas Institute succeeds in its proposal to raise and expand NC's sales tax.
Civitas calls for "repealing current exemptions, preferential rates, and refunds" for the sales tax. The current NC tax code allows for several refunds; the refunds and their estimated FY 2012 values are shown in the table below. The biggest refund category is for non-profit organizations, including "churches, orphanages and other charitable or religious institutions."
Monday, January 21, 2013
Atlas Shrugged
Who is John Golf?
Pro-golfer Phil Mickelson petulantly hinted yesterday that he might retire or exile himself from California or do something else because of his increasing tax burden, which will only let him keep millions of dollars of earnings.
Washed-up golfer Mickelson will join washed-out French actor Gerard Depardieu, whose quest for tax freedom led him first to Belgium and next to liberty-loving Russia.
Closer to home, perennial News & Record LTE-writer Tony Moschetti has made nice noises about Cuba.
Altas is shrugging, "who cares?"
Pro-golfer Phil Mickelson petulantly hinted yesterday that he might retire or exile himself from California or do something else because of his increasing tax burden, which will only let him keep millions of dollars of earnings.
Washed-up golfer Mickelson will join washed-out French actor Gerard Depardieu, whose quest for tax freedom led him first to Belgium and next to liberty-loving Russia.
Closer to home, perennial News & Record LTE-writer Tony Moschetti has made nice noises about Cuba.
Altas is shrugging, "who cares?"
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Civitas tax proposal and senior citizens
The proposal by the John W. Pope Civitas Institute to eliminate North Carolina's income, corporate, and franchise taxes and replace them with a new business tax, a transfer tax on real estate, and a higher and expanded sales tax has a curious omission.
The proposal acknowledges that the changes would be regressive--would reduce tax obligations for wealthy households that have extra money that they can save and increase obligations for poorer households that spend most of their money on consumption goods.
The proposal doesn't mention the impact on retirees--probably for the reason that retirees would suffer disproportionately.
The proposal acknowledges that the changes would be regressive--would reduce tax obligations for wealthy households that have extra money that they can save and increase obligations for poorer households that spend most of their money on consumption goods.
The proposal doesn't mention the impact on retirees--probably for the reason that retirees would suffer disproportionately.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Deflation
My grandmother's response was, "We'll miss you."
My dad sulked out of the house, made it around the corner, and sat on the curb. Utterly deflated, he was back home within half an hour.
House Republicans must be feeling similarly deflated.
After stomping their collective feet and threatening to bring down the U.S. economy through a debt default, Republicans have decided to approve a small expansion of the debt ceiling that will push the issue off for three months.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Entire NC Republican delegation opposes storm relief
The second part of the Sandy relief legislation--a $50 billion package to help New York, New Jersey, and other northeast states rebuild and prepare for future storms--passed the House of Representatives last night despite overwhelming Republican opposition--including "no" votes from every single member of North Carolina's Republican delegation.
Representatives Foxx, Holding, Hudson, and Meadows, who had already voted against borrowing to allow the National Flood Insurance Program to pay its obligations to victims, were joined in the latest vote by Representatives Coble, Ellmers, Jones, McHenry, and Pittenger.
All four NC Democratic representatives voted for the measures.
A closely-related measure that combined both parts of the House bill passed the Senate late last term with a bipartisan 62-32 vote. Democratic Senator Hagan voted for that measure; Republican Senator Burr voted against.
I can't predict the weather. But I can predict that the "attaboys" the Republican delegation are getting from its Tea Party supporters will be replaced with cries for federal relief when a big storm eventually hits Hurricane-prone NC.
Representatives Foxx, Holding, Hudson, and Meadows, who had already voted against borrowing to allow the National Flood Insurance Program to pay its obligations to victims, were joined in the latest vote by Representatives Coble, Ellmers, Jones, McHenry, and Pittenger.
All four NC Democratic representatives voted for the measures.
A closely-related measure that combined both parts of the House bill passed the Senate late last term with a bipartisan 62-32 vote. Democratic Senator Hagan voted for that measure; Republican Senator Burr voted against.
I can't predict the weather. But I can predict that the "attaboys" the Republican delegation are getting from its Tea Party supporters will be replaced with cries for federal relief when a big storm eventually hits Hurricane-prone NC.
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Financing Charlotte's stadium upgrade
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| Source: http://sayanythingblog.com/entry/36577/ |
There is another financing option that could save Charlotte taxpayers and shift the most of the costs to the actual beneficiaries--issue $125 million in city-guaranteed bonds with an agreement that the stadium owners will pay back the bonds.
Monday, January 14, 2013
16 (increasingly hot) candles
Has global warming paused over the last 16 years? The record high temperatures in the continental U.S. and the following video suggest it hasn't.
Source: Skeptical Science.
Source: Skeptical Science.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Your glowing problem could be a growing problem
Although the increasing possibility of fracking in the Tar Heel state has many North Carolinians in a dither, there's actually another mineral extraction opportunity just over the border in Chatham, Virginia that could be much, much worse.
Virginia's General Assembly might make that opportunity a reality very soon.
It's not a new concern.
Virginia's General Assembly might make that opportunity a reality very soon.
It's not a new concern.
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Legislative ethics NC-style
The Republican Senate chair of the Legislative Ethics Committee has been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. The Charlotte Observer reports
It is probably not too surprising that Sen. Harsell's Legislative Ethics Committee found no violations whatsoever last year (heck, it even managed to dismiss more complaints than it received).
Sen. Hartsell's campaign finance reports are available from the State Board of Elections website. If his 2nd quarter 2008 report is any indication ($8,872.66 paid to cover his personal American Express card), Sen. Hartell's questionable reporting goes back a ways.
State Sen. Fletcher Hartsell Jr. spent nearly $100,000 of his campaign’s money in 2011 and 2012 paying off debts on at least 10 personal credit cards, according to new campaign finance reports.Sen. Hartsell was unopposed in his most recent primary and general election campaigns, so you really have to wonder why the contributions were needed in the first place. Just as Pig-Pen from Peanuts was the only kid who could create a dust cloud in a snow-storm, Sen. Hartsell seems to have a rare ability to create expenses in uncontested elections.
...The disclosure forms also show the campaign writing checks to two banks and a credit union in relatively large amounts. Last month, for example, the Hartsell campaign paid the State Employees’ Credit Union $750. The listed purpose of the spending is “bank transfer.” Hartsell said he could not immediately explain the bank spending and would not rule out cash withdrawals.
It is probably not too surprising that Sen. Harsell's Legislative Ethics Committee found no violations whatsoever last year (heck, it even managed to dismiss more complaints than it received).
Sen. Hartsell's campaign finance reports are available from the State Board of Elections website. If his 2nd quarter 2008 report is any indication ($8,872.66 paid to cover his personal American Express card), Sen. Hartell's questionable reporting goes back a ways.
Sound familiar?
This sure has a familiar and immiserating ring to it.
Gov. Bobby Jindal is proposing to eliminate Louisiana's income and corporate taxes and pay for those cuts with increased sales taxes, the governor's office confirmed Thursday. The governor's office has not yet provided the details of the plan.Do ya ever get the feeling that these folks are all reading off the same script?
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